There was little change to the status of Tropical Storm Karl in the southern Gulf of Mexico’s Bay of Campeche on Thursday morning, and the storm is expected to make landfall in Mexico early Saturday morning, with heavy rains being the main threat.
At 11 a.m. EDT Thursday, October 13, Karl was about 245 miles north of Coalzacoaltos, Mexico, with top sustained winds of 50 mph. Satellite images showed that the low-level center of Karl was almost exposed to view, with all of the storm’s heavy thunderstorms located to the southeast of the center. This configuration was the result of strong upper-level winds out of the northwest, which were creating a high 20 knots of wind shear over Karl.
The wind shear is predicted to remain moderate to high over the next two days, as a ridge of high-pressure forces Karl to the south at about 5 mph. The high shear, in combination with a dry atmosphere with a mid-level relative humidity of 55%, is expected to prevent any significant strengthening of Karl before landfall occurs in Mexico on the south-central coast of the Gulf of Mexico early Saturday morning. Heavy rains will be the main threat from Karl, with widespread amounts of 3 – 7 inches predicted near the landfall location. Fortunately, the portion of Mexico where Karl’s heaviest rains will be falling have dry soils, with moderate drought in some areas.