Tropical Storm Francine formed in the Gulf of Mexico on Monday and could be a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds as it approaches landfall along the Louisiana coast on Wednesday afternoon.
“Francine is expected to bring heavy rainfall and the risk of considerable flash flooding along the coast of northeast Mexico, the far lower and far upper Texas coasts, southern Louisiana, and southern Mississippi into Thursday morning,” the National Hurricane Center said. A significant storm surge also is expected along the Texas and Louisiana coasts.
The forecast of heavy rain and damaging wind gusts could lead to downed trees, power outages and structural damage from portions of northeastern Mexico to the southern U.S., AccuWeather warned.
The storm continued to grow stronger and become better organized on Monday and appeared to be forming an eye on satellite images, hurricane center director Michael Brennan said in an afternoon briefing. The center of the system was an estimated 150 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Rio Grande and about 435 miles south-southwest of Cameron, Louisiana, at 4 p.m. CDT on Wednesday.
Sustained winds had increased to 65 mph and the storm was moving at 5 mph in a north-northwesterly direction. Francine is likely to become a hurricane overnight Monday or early Tuesday, Brennan said. The forecast indicates it could continue strengthening until near landfall Wednesday, when it’s expected to begin encountering wind shear in a front along the coast.
Sweeping watches and warnings are in effect along the Gulf Coast from High Island, Texas, to the Mississippi-Alabama border. The southeast coast of Texas is expected to receive “some pretty significant rainfall over the next 12-24 hours,” Brennan said.
A hurricane warning was issued Monday afternoon for the Louisiana coast from the Texas border east to Morgan City, Louisiana, meaning hurricane conditions are expected within 36 hours.
A hurricane watch is in effect further east on the Louisiana coast from Morgan City east to Grand Isle, meaning hurricane conditions are possible there within the next 48 hours.
A tropical storm warning, meaning tropical storm conditions are expected within 36 hours, is in place along the Louisiana coast from east of Morgan City to Grand Isle, Louisiana and from High Island, Texas to Sabine Pass.
A tropical storm watch is in effect along the Texas coast from Barra del Tordo, Mexico north to High Island, Texas, and from east of Grand Isle, Louisiana, to the mouth of the Pearl River, including Lake Pontchartrain. A watch means tropical storm winds are possible along the coast by Tuesday evening.
An elevated risk of rip currents is expected along Gulf Coast beaches this week as Francine approaches the coast, according to the National Weather Service.
In preparation for potentially rough wind and seas, two U.S. oil and gas producers in the Gulf of Mexico are evacuating staff and curbing drilling, Reuters reported Monday.
Francine is the sixth named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, and the first since Ernesto dissipated on Aug. 20.
The system is one of three the hurricane center is watching. Another is in the central tropical Atlantic and is given a 60% chance of becoming a tropical storm within 48 hours. A storm farther to the east has a 70% chance of development over the next week.
The center’s forecast calls for Francine to be a Category 2 hurricane on Wednesday with 100-mph winds. It would be this season’s fourth hurricane.
The storm is forecast to bring 4–8 inches of rainfall to the coast. Amounts up to 12 inches are possible in some locations in northeastern Mexico and along the Texas and Louisiana coasts through Thursday, presenting a flash flood risk, the center said.
The first Hurricane Hunter flight flew into Francine on Monday afternoon, a crew aboard the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Gulfstream IV jet, dubbed Gonzo. Two other flights were scheduled for take off Monday afternoon.
Francine is forecast to begin a faster motion to the northeast by late Tuesday as it meets a cold front along the Gulf Coast. It would be just offshore along the Texas coast moving toward a potential landfall along the upper Texas or Louisiana coast on Wednesday afternoon, said Donald Jones, a meteorologist in the National Weather Service office in Lake Charles, Louisiana in a Sunday night briefing.
The greatest probability for tropical storm force winds – 70 – 80% chance – is across the coastal areas of Vermilion, Iberia, St. Martin and St. Mary parishes, Jones said. Hurricane watches were issued along the Louisiana coast from the eastern half of Cameron Parish east across the central coast of Louisiana. Those probabilities are expected to rise as Francine edges closer.
Exxon Mobile said it was reducing its drilling output and evacuated staff from its Hoover offshore production team, while Shell said it was pausing drilling operations at its Perdido and Whale offshore platforms on Monday, Reuters reported