India Meteorological Department (IMD) has clarified that the peak wind speeds at the time of impending landfall of prospective very severe cyclone Nivar’ would be 120-130 km/hr gusting to 145 km/hr, attributing an upward revision in an intervening bulletin to an inadvertent error. Severe cyclonic storm Nivar’ was located at 240 km East-South-East of Cuddalore and 250 km along the same bearing to Puducherry; and 300 km South-South-East of Chennai, the IMD said in a noon bulletin on Wednesday, restricting the potential landfall area to less than 200 km-stretch on the Tamil Nadu-Puducherry coast. Nivar’ is expected to intensify further into a very severe cyclonic storm this (Wednesday) evening as it approaches for an eventful landfall between Karaikal and Mamallapuram around Puducherry during midnight and into the small hours of Thursday as a very severe cyclonic storm with wind speeds of 120-130 km/hr gusting to 145 km/hr. Extremely heavy rain warning Extremely heavy rainfall has been warned of over Myladuthurai, Ariyalur, Perambalur, Cuddalore, Villupuram. Kallapurichi and Thiruvannamalai districts and Puducherry today (Wednesday). Heavy to very heavy rain may lash Nagapattinam, Tiruvarur, Thanjavur, Trichy, salem, Erode, Namakkal, Dharmapuri, Krishnagiri, Vellore, Tiruppatur, Ranipet, Chengalpattu, Kanchipuram, Chennai and Tiruvallur districts. Meanwhile, global model forecasts mostly agreed with the IMD timeline of landfall for the very severe cyclone by midnight into the early hours of Thursday as also the area of landfall, though a few indicated that the landfall area could extend a little further, from the South of Cuddalore to the South of Chennai. Global model views on ‘Nivar’ track The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) seemed to be locked into Marakkanam as the landfall area (2.30 am on Thursday) while the ECWMF-IRES-HRES indicated a comparatively stronger system delaying landfall around the same location between 2.30 am and 3.30 am. The ICON model signalled to a landfall at 2.30 am while a few others suspected that the landfall could take place anytime during a window that is open as early as 9.30 pm tonight (Wednesday) and 1.30 am with a majority going for the 11.30 pm slot and into early Thursday hours as the IMD. The other look-outs ranged from; the GFS (landfall at 9.30 pm); the UKMO (rapid intensification until 5.30 pm and slight weakening with landfall at 11.30 pm); the APREGE (11.30 pm); the GEM (landfall South of Cuddalore at 11.30 pm); the ACCESS-G (landfall at 1.30 am on Thursday); the CMA (landfall South of Cuddalore at 11.30 pm); and the GDAPS-UM (landfall at 2.30 am on Thursday South of Chennai).