South Asian region is excessively wide-open to climate change effects; comprising higher temperatures, sea-level rise, inconsistent rainfall, amplified occurrence and harshness of extreme weather incidents, increased overflow and glacial melting. It is anticipated as the nastiest impacted regions by climate change and global warming because of geophysical environment in addition to the socio economic and demographic backwardness of population. There are millions of people bearing the burden of these catastrophes due to reliance upon climate sensitive segments such as forestry, fishing and agriculture for their daily needs. Biodiversity, human health, food security, energy, water, agricultural output as well as coastal arrangements are going to imperil causing increased migrations ultimately escalating pressures over main towns (Hans, 2020).
With the help of mainstreaming climatic resistance in to community development policies and taking along confirmed worthy development practices in to resilience approach conveyance as well as through integrated aptitude towards it can easily help to accomplish uneven methods to advancement and combating negative outcomes of climate change. It is an urgent necessity for domestic, regional and global level to mitigate and take adaptive measures for facing the harsh veracity of climatic change. South Asian states “as one bloc” should make constructive negotiations via international organizations. To achieve this, further regional considerations, cooperation and mutual work is required.
This article attempts to assess the over-all condition of South Asian climatic change and role of national and international organizations in this regard. It also suggests the adaptation based actions and other recommendations to bring improvement. For this, it has been divided into three sections with the explanation below;
Section-I Climate Change in South Asia; Particular Records and Evidences
It is expected that South Asian region will experience 2-6 degree of Celsius increase in the temperature by the ending 21st century era (Rabindranath, 2002). Heating up of roughly 0.21 Degree-Celsius every ten years is anticipated for coming twenty years (Jayant, 2007).
According to the experts, South Asia is already suffering the wrath of climate change. There are influences on economic enactments of the South Asian states mainly and the livelihoods of thousands of folks of this area are affected and even in the near future this situation will be worst. South Asian region is projected as the most awful affected global regions because of climate change, and this is due to various reasons: like geo-climatic surroundings, excessive dependence on agriculture, socio-economic and demographic credentials etc. (Nazrul Islam, 2014).
Yohe et al., (2008) reflects that biodiversity, coastal ecosystem, food, human health, water resources, land deprivation etc. are deliberated as extremely vulnerable for this region on basis of climatic-change. Cyclones, famine, overflows, storms etc. are in the lives of millions of South Asians. On the other hand, the severity and intensity of these incidents in the recent times are increasing badly which is very worrisome. Scientists discourse that because of inclusive climate-change, incidences like these, will increase in coming era and take along a lot of despair for lots of folks. In this region, forthcoming years in several parts mainly in Maldives, islands or coastal areas of India and Sri Lanka, Southern coastal localities of Bangladesh are totally unreliable. Evidences illustrate that rise of 1 meter in the sea-level may cause an economic cost of 1259 million dollars in India only and this is almost equal to 0.37% of the total GNP (Jayashree, 2007). Total GDP loss since 2010 to future projection till 2100 has been shown here (Figure-03). Besides this economic loss, another worst consequence will be the incursion of ‘environmental refugees’ (term proposed by Lester Brown in 1976) in the overburdened hubs of South Asia, that is going to jeopardize the environmental, commercial, as well as societal balance in this region.
South Asian region is susceptible to various climate change hazards which are linked with its geography, population, economic infrastructure etc. These are;
Glacial Melting: The peaks of Himalayas are sustenance for almost one and half billions of population, living in flood-plains of several rivers flowing from it. Around 10 percent rivers of Himalaya emanate by water-melting of snow peaks, and is very indispensable for endurance during dry spells (ADB, 2009). But due to growing temperatures, the Himalayas’ ice mass is waning more speedily than universal average, and it will badly impact the Basins. Water scarcity during summer-months, that denotes approximately 61% of the yearly current, can impact this zone at the crucial time while people want water for the purpose of cultivation or hydro-power in addition to others. The change in snow melting and snow covering patterns will be affecting river flow in coming term (ADB, 2009). As per the studies of International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development, at hand are possibly twenty unsafe glacial water bodies in Nepal as well as twenty-five in Bhutan, which pretense hazard of upsurge overflows towards remote populations (Ives et al., 2010).
Land Erosion: Increase in floods, storms, surges, rainfall, rise in the sea-level besides anthropological activities are reasons of deteriorating destruction in South Asian zone. Over-grazed rangelands, coastal lands and stripped highlands got pretentious specifically. 26.5 percent of coast-line is disposed to corrosion in India, by around 450 hectares of mass land lost on yearly basis. Coastline of Sri Lanka is also matter to substantial erosion in specific areas, whereas the mountain state is susceptible to the recurrent landslides. Mountain communities in India, Bhutan and Nepal, are facing landslides regularly (Hans, 2020). Economies, habitats, agriculture and narrowing livelihood prospects, especially of the country side underprivileged are getting damaged. In South Asia, shoreline besides foothill territory erosion is going to worsen in years ahead because of extreme weather events occurrence due to climatic change.
Rising Sea-Level: Stretched plus comprehensively settled coastlines of the region are extremely in danger of sea-level increase. Only in state of Bangladesh the level of sea is anticipated to upsurge 46 cm by the year 2050, affecting 10 to 15 percent of land mass and assessed 35 million people (GOB, 2007). It has been also projected that sea-level will grow by 15-39 cm by 2050 in India, placing major cities including Kolkata, Kochi as well as Mumbai at menace. A great fraction of Coastal line of Sri Lanka stays under 1-meter overhead of the sea level, which can get sunken due to high waves, alongside its transportation substructure. Average altitude of Maldives’ landmasses is 1.50 meters above the level of sea, therefore survival is in threat which could be triggered by large scale migrations, having ripple impacts across the borders. Rise in the sea level gives path to saline water incursion, which possess risk for supply of drinking water, agriculture and aquatic lives. Above hundred million hectares got affected in Bangladesh, and whole of Maldives got wedged via salt-water meddling because of rising of sea-levels. It also came under forecast that Thatta and Badin-two historical cities in Sindh, Pakistan will get swallowed by the sea till 2050 because the sea is encroaching eighty acres of land per day. Sea-level rise has been shown covering 21st century over here.
Floods: Major zones of India, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Nepal are inclined to recurring floods because of low elevation, heavy monsoon rains and blocked natural drainage. Melting of glaciers and rising of seas levels with maximum chance of storm surges and flooding caused by climatic change can put state of Bangladesh at specific risk, because of three large river systems’ convergence, side by side assembling the rainwater of an area twelve times larger than the country. In Bangladesh for nine months, floods could last. Abrupt monsoon rains trapped South Asian region improvised to deal with the floods, which affected almost thirty million people of India, Bangladesh and Nepal in 2007. Approximately 1.1 million homes and 11 million people got damaged and displaced during 2010 floods in Pakistan (Hans, 2020). Recent flood in 2022 has also caused a huge loss to Pakistani nation.
Cyclones: Cyclone Amphan, a strongest storm is one of the recent examples which slammed into India and Bangladesh in May, 2020. It ended up with 3 million evacuees and damaged around 2 million homes there. People of India, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka were displaced at large scale. Such stormy weathers are recurrent shift triggers. Back in year 2009, 2.3 million Indians and nearly 1 million of Bangladeshi people were displaced by Cyclone Aila (Kugelman, 2020)…