Fuel prices have been rising since 2021, but this trend has been accelerated by the war in Ukraine and the associated sanctions against Russia and Belarus. The fishing industry is highly dependent on fuel for its vessels, but the effects vary according to type. More than 80% of large beam and twin trawlers need significantly more revenue to compensate for these high fuel costs. For shrimp trawlers, fly shooters and euro trawlers, the additional necessary revenue is lower.
The Ministry of Agriculture, Nature and Food Safety has commissioned Wageningen University & Research to prepare a report on the consequences of increased fuel costs for the fishing industry in March 2022. The researchers used three scenarios to look into this. A basic variant in which the price of fuel as of March 2022 (0.90 EUR per litre) is taken as the starting point for the rest of the year. There is also the optimistic variant, which assumes lower fuel costs compared with March 2022 (0.70 EUR per litre), and the pessimistic scenario. This assumes an increase in fuel costs (1.10 EUR per litre).
In general, the rise in fuel prices leads to significant production cost increases across the fishing industry. These increases come on top of 47% of fishers already making losses in 2021. According to WUR calculations, this share will be even higher in 2022. In an optimistic scenario, this would be 65% of all fishers. If the average fuel price in 2022 reaches the same level as March (the base level scenario), 72% of ships will suffer losses this year. In the pessimistic scenario, 74% of fisheries will be in the red.
Irrespective of loss, if revenues increase, they may at least (partially) compensate for the effects of the increased fuel prices.
In the optimistic scenario, a 20% yield increase would be sufficient for two-thirds of the vessels. This group mainly consists of shrimp cutters, not large beam trawlers.
In the base scenario, a 20% yield increase would be sufficient to neutralise the effect of increased fuel prices for almost half of the vessels. Over 60% of shrimp cutters are in this group, but only 3% of large beam trawlers.
In the pessimistic scenario, about 20% (64 vessels) of the vessels would need a 50% price increase to compensate for the increased fuel costs. Of the large beam trawlers, 75% need more than 50% additional income to compensate for the increased fuel prices.