As summer in the Northern Hemisphere approaches, forecasters begin watching every bout of rainy weather between the Gulf of Mexico and Africa. Each counterclockwise swirl of wind or burst of puffy clouds there has the potential to organize into a life-threatening tropical storm.
About half of the tropical storms that formed over the past two decades grew into hurricanes, and about half of those became the monsters of coastal destruction we call major hurricanes. We’re now accustomed to seeing about 16 tropical storms per year, though that number can vary quite a bit year to year.
What are the warning signs that we might be in for another record Atlantic hurricane season like 2020, when 30 tropical storms formed, or a quieter one like 2014, with just eight?
The National Hurricane Center issued its first seasonal forecast of 2021 on May 20, and it expects a more active than normal season, with 13 to 20 named storms, six to 10 hurricanes and three to five major hurricanes. The first of those named storms, Ana, formed on May 22, 10 days ahead of the season’s June 1 start.
The total number of tropical storms tells only part of the story. There are other important aspects to keep an eye on over time, like how intense storms become, how long they last, how fast they travel and how long they take to dissipate after making landfall. Recent studies have indicated that hurricane-fueling ocean temperatures have been trending warmer since the Industrial Revolution, especially along the U.S. East Coast.
Coastal communities are already on the front lines of climate change with sea level rise. The potential for changes in extreme events like tropical storms, with their complex interactions with the atmosphere and ocean, are why hurricanes have steadily risen to be a top research priority.
2021 The Maritime Executive, LLC. All rights reserved.