The Asian Development Bank estimated that South-East Asia will require $3.1 trillion between 2016 and 2030 to develop energy, transportation, water and sanitation systems for sustainable development. Most of that investment is required in lower-income countries, such as Cambodia and Laos. That critical need for major infrastructure investment has created an opportunity for China to engage in infrastructure diplomacy. Beijing has almost fully exploited all of the hydropower potential in its portion of the Mekong River. It is lending support to downstream countries in South-East Asia to develop their own hydropower facilities. It has been proven that Chinese dams can have a dramatic effect on water levels in the lower Mekong basin. That could give Beijing additional leverage over the region. China is now in a position to build goodwill with the countries of the lower Mekong basin through infrastructure development or use its dams to coerce its near neighbours into accepting Chinese strategic interests. Both options are likely to be detrimental to the US and the broader Western world.
The Mekong River provides water, energy and food to six countries in South-East Asia. About 250 million people live in the lower Mekong basin and 80 per cent of them directly depend on the river for their food or livelihoods. The region has the most productive inland fishery in the world, which is valued at approximately US$17 billion per year. The river is one of the most threatened in the world, however, largely due to the significant increase in the amount of water impounded behind large dams. Most of those dams are located within China, but there are plans for several more to be built in Laos and Cambodia. Those dams will not only devastate the ecological balance of the region, but potentially grant China additional means to coerce countries within its growing sphere of influence.
China has built 11 of the world’s largest dams on its portion of the river, with plans to construct several more. Those dams store more than 47 billion cubic metres of water and can generate more than 21,000 megawatts of electricity. Beijing has refused to join any international water sharing treaty, leaving those countries downstream with no option but to rely on Chinese good will for the continued flow of water.
Future Directions International 2020