Exports are forecast to total $16.2 billion, while imports should come in at $18.5 billion, leading to a trade deficit of $2.3 billion. At those levels, trade in the new year fiscal year is expected to grow by $1.6 billion compared to the forecast $33 billion for the current fiscal year. Up to 85 percent of that volume has already been achieved, said assistant secretary U Khin Maung Lwin. “We are expecting better trade prospects next year based on the premise that the marine export business is still growing and demand for Myanmar fisheries and agriculture produce has been rising,” he said. Despite a slowdown in garment and fruit exports as a result of COVID-19, orders for crops like maize has risen by more than 20pc to 2 million tonnes this year. Meanwhile, rice exports hit 2.4 million tonnes, or $700 million in value, over the same period. But there are also risks on the downside. U Khin Maung Lwin said export income for sectors such as oil and gas may still decline if global prices remain volatile. Myanmar also risks losing chunks of revenue from markets that dominate trade in certain products. For example, import restrictions imposed by the Indians have caused prices of Myamar beans and pulses to fall, resulting in revenue shortfalls. More than 90pc of local beans and pulses is exported, mostly to India. The lack of new cut-make-pack (CMP) orders in the garment manufacturing sector is a concern. Since the start of COVID-19, a shortage of raw materials from China and order cancellations from major buyers like the EU, which accounts for 70pc of the country’s garment exports, have led to the collapse of many local factories. “We have yet to receive any major orders beyond August. International demand continues to be disrupted by COVID-19 and we cannot say for sure when this will return,” said U Khin Maung Lwin. In fact, many factories are still operating on past orders booked before the pandemic. At least half the local garment factories run by the Koreans and Chinese have not received new orders past August, said U Myint Soe, chair of the Myanmar Garment Manufacturers Association. “The lack of new orders is the most worrying as it can lead to permanent shutdowns. Buyers from Japan and the EU still have past inventories from Myanmar in their warehouses now and have asked our factories for more time to place new orders,” U Myint Soe said. A growing number of factories are likely to announce further layoffs or closures due to the lack of new orders beyond August and September, said U San Khun, chair of the Chinese Textile & Garment Association in Myanmar. Even world famous brands have had to stop operations or reduce workers. So, it is undeniable that our country will face this issue also as there are many clothing, shoes and accessory factories waiting on foreign orders now, said U Myo Aung, permanent secretary of the Ministry of Labour, Immigration and Population. But there is still potential for recovery and growth. Myanmar is expected to continue displaying high growth potential in garment manufacturing, according to Londonbased research agency Fitch Solutions in a July 14 report predicting that Vietnam, Bangladesh, Cambodia and Myanmar would remain the dominant players in textile manufacturing in the region. Besides the low-cost labour, Jason Yek, senior country risk analyst of Fitch Solutions, said Myanmar’s proximity to China, its special market privileges granted by the EU under the Generalised Scheme of Preference and low logistics and transport costs all work in Myanmar’s favour.” We expect Myanmar’s growth to be driven by lower value basic garment exports which manufacturers will find more challenging to turn a profit on in Bangladesh and Cambodia, where production costs are comparatively higher, Mr Yek said.