With a plethora of horrible conditions owing to climate change, the most serious effects in Pakistan are expected to increase severe drought and volatility in extreme precipitation events, leading to more mudslides and landslides. “Pakistan emerges as a nation grappling with the disproportionate impact of climate change despite its relatively minor contribution to global greenhouse gas emissions,” according to the Pakistan Economic Survey (PES) report launched on Tuesday.
In the expected worst scenario, the report says the annual expected damage from riverine floods by 2050 is projected to surge by 47 percent (RCP 4.5) and 49 percent (RCP 8.5), respectively. The fraction of the population exposed to heatwaves yearly is expected to increase by 32 percent (RCP 4.5) and 36 percent (RCP 8.5) by 2050, respectively. About the agriculture section, it says “Climate change will likely severely impact the agriculture sector, increasing food production and access pressure. For example, by 2050, the annual mean wheat yield will decline by 1 percent (RCP 4.5) and 2.5 percent (RCP 8.5), respectively.”
Precipitation changes and declining water availability could damage riverine ecology, impair water security, and affect hydropower production, according to the report, which further revealed that sea-level rise will contribute to the further salinization of soils and coastal erosion, and inundation will harm fisheries and aquaculture. Air and water pollution will aggravate human health, especially those living in vulnerable areas, it says. The country faces unpredictable weather patterns, resulting in flash floods, droughts, glacial lake outbursts, intense heat waves, and erratic rainfall. As a result, its ecosystems and landscapes are deteriorating, according to the report.
“Forest fires are increasing, plant and animal species are migrating, and water bodies and wells are depleting due to intensified human activities,” says the report, which further alarmed rising sea levels and more intense storms could lead to coastal flooding and erosion, causing the loss of crucial coastal habitats such as mangroves, which serve as important nurseries for many fish species. The Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) suggests that climate change will likely worsen the frequency and intensity of such extreme events.
The average temperature in Pakistan has increased by 1°C since the 1980s and is projected to continue rising. Climate change has significantly affected the Indus River Delta, situated at the confluence of the Indus River and the Arabian Sea. “With increased temperatures and rising temperature volatility, Pakistan will see increased climate related severities in the future,” it says.
The most serious effects of climate change in Pakistan are expected to increase severe drought and volatility in extreme precipitation events, leading to more mudslides and landslides. Beyond its NDCs, Pakistan has exceeded mitigation efforts, resulting in an 8.7 percent reduction in emissions between 2016 and 2018, according to the report.
“Climate change is expected to devastate the world’s poor, as they are both geographically and economically vulnerable, making it more difficult for them to adapt. Despite contributing the least to the problem, developing countries are expected to bear the brunt of the impact of climate change. Despite accounting for only 0.9 percent of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, Pakistan is one of the world’s most vulnerable nations to the impacts of climate change,” says the report.
Pollution in Pakistan is grappling with an air pollution crisis, with some urban areas experiencing hazardous levels off pollution throughout the year. “Children are susceptible to air and water pollutants, which can have lifetime consequences in terms of diseases, disability, cognitive impairment, and death,” says the report. It says, “Over a million citizens are at increased mortality risk from air pollution in highly urbanized cities, especially Lahore, Karachi, and Peshawar. The primary sources include the domestic use of fossil fuels (necessitated by inadequate access to clean, modern energy for cooking), motor vehicle emissions, industrial emissions, and emissions from agriculture, including fertilizers, livestock, and the burning of crop residues.”